As I Get Better

I probably shouldn't be trading during this period. I know there is thin volume, that moves may not reflect wider market sentiment, and whatever else I should know. However, I simply like to trade. Besides, now that I'm getting better, it's a hobby that can generate an income.One thing I've noticed though is that I'm still too impatient. Basically, my worst batting average will coincide with

Extraction Strategies

Extraction strategies? What the heck is that?Underwater PsychologyIf you are like anyone else you've found yourself in a trade that is going against you from time to time. You start to imagine reasons why the price could continue to move against you.For example, this morning I was underwater in a position due to the spike in AUDJPY. The price of oil was rising due to the conflict in Gaza,

Christmas Week Trading Results

Between the thin trading volume and the holidays there wasn't a lot of opportunity in the Forex markets this week.In any case, I did manage to eek out a 7.5% gain in net asset value.This has me thinking. If I was to build up an account balance of approximately $20,000 and maintain gains of 5% or more per week then I'd probably be able to think about quitting my day job.This task seems

Thin Trading Resistance Test

I'm not sure how significant technical events will be with thin holiday trading. However, the AUDJPY tested the long term resistance mentioned in my previous post.As I write, this pair has been slipping down after what appeared to be a sustained break for several hours (at least according to my chart... over such a large period of time small inaccuracies could lead to misinterpretation).Which

GOLD SYSTEM

Buy

1. price above buy zone fib, blue rsi chart bar

2. William's percent range indicator gold line entering or inside blue area
above -25.00

3. RSIOMA clearly crossed up

Sell

1. Price below sell zone fib, red rsi chart bar

2. William's Percent Range Indicator gold line entering or inside red area
below -75.00

3. RSIOMA clerly crossed down


Exceptions for opening a Trade when above conditions are met:

1. When a bar within the last 4 hours before 9am EST (1400 GMT) is extended 1000 points or more in the same direction the conditions indicate. In this case it is my experience that there is a great pobablility that even with all the trade conditions met, by 9am EST (1400 GMT) the selling or buying would have been temporarily exhuasted because of this extended candle and this trading method is dependent upon this time.


Conditions for closing Trade:

Safest

1. When price hits next pivot point line in direction of trade.

Moderately Safe

1. When the RSIOMA blue line touches the purple line again attempting to cross in the opposite direction of trade or a red or blue dot shows on the RSIOMA indicator in the opposite direction of the trade - whichever comes first.

RECOMMENDED TIMEFRAME 1 HOUR

Post Holiday AUDJPY Strategy

Though trading is probably going to be thin until we get into January I think it's a good time to consider trading strategy.In the short term I expect the following:A test of the long term resistance line showing up on the daily charts from around October 14th until now. This could take place around 62.10 to 62.20 depending on how long it is before the test happens.I'm not sure it will happen,

3:00am AUDJPY Upswing

Once again, upon waking in the very early hours, I was able to catch an upward movement in the AUDJPY.Though the price did come back again around 5:00am and 6:00am, I certainly wouldn't have been awake to catch those moves.So, strange as it is, I unloaded my positions to the tune of a 1% gain in NAV (Net Asset Value) and went back to sleep all squared away.Happy trading! Zzzzz.

INTERNET PROBLEM

Having trouble log in into blogger account lately. Forex is not going anyway at the moment. Up and down it is still at the same level.

Currently I am watching for a certain level in GbpUsd. 1.4650 is the level I am waiting for. Believe it or not, I have not traded this week. Today GU nearly hit my stop order. I am still waiting

A Pop And A Drop

In my last post, where I gave an audible AUDJPY signal, I suggested that we were coming up to a decision point for the AUDJPY.My take was that we'd see a drop.It took some patience, but after carefully accumulating a few positions on the way up I was rewarded with a nice quick profitable drop. While I would have done better playing for the pop and keeping an eye out for signs of a drop, I really

AUDJPY Signal

Okay, this isn't really a signal, but what the heck. It looks like the AUDJPY is positioned to head downwards on the 3hr, 1hr, 15min and 5min charts.Yes, yes, I know. It doesn't actually mean it's going to do that. However, this does mean it's a good time to do your own technical analysis and see whether you see a reversal or a breakout.Either will do.

Adjusting My Risk

Though I'm very happy to report great earnings progress it also makes me nervous. Not only are my these recent gains a hard act to follow but now I need to adjust the size of my trades.Enter the arena of trading psychology.Trading larger amounts let's you see losses and gains adding up faster. It's harder to resist the emotional forces generated.So far this week I've been a bit hesitant and

Recent Trading Results

First, some recent results:Week ending 28-Nov: +23% NAVWeek ending 05-Dec: +08% NAVWeek ending 12-Dec: +10% NAVWeek ending 19-Dec: +45% NAVThis is silly! I'm going to outline some of the events that transpired to help this happen.During the week ending 05-Dec I acquired some AUDJPY positions in the 58.xx price range. I had a nice trend line indicating that this was likely to be a support point

Yen Cross Spike

Guess who was lucky enough to wake up at 4:00am this morning?At around 4:20 there was a massive spike in my AUD/JPY holdings. I'd accumulated some positions on the way up from 58.xx and unloaded them as it made a 63.xx rocket launch. Checking out my news sources it seems that various stops were triggered. Given that market conditions were thin the price went nuts.Anyway, though my open trades

Where To Go From Here

While I'm getting fairly comfortable with my ability to trade I'm not sure what to do with my blog.To make my blog really useful to others I'd have to spend a fair amount of time on it. Perhaps post charts and so forth with explanatory text. Heck, I have trouble finding time to blog at all given the duties of my full time job, some hobbies, family responsibilities and finally watching the

4 Guidelines for Forex Trading I Follow

Forex trading may become a much easier activity if you follow your own or someone else’s well-formulated guidelines. I’ve based my guidelines on my past Forex trading experience and knowledge gained listening to some of the best stock and Forex traders. What’s important is that the guidelines are not the laws and rules — they are not the only way to success, they just help the traders in their endeavor. Here’s the list of my four Forex trading guidelines:

• Risk only 3% of the total trading capital with each trade. Generally it’s quite hard to come up with the comfortable risk percentage value for your trades if you want to keep a good money management and still let your funds grow at a nice rate. For me 3% is the optimal level — safe enough to save and high enough to gain.
• Reward-to-risk ratio should be no lower than 1. Many currency traders prefer trading with the ratio not less than 2 or even higher. That’s a problem of risk/gain balance too. For me the opportunities with the ratio above 2 are very rare — maybe, because I prefer high accuracy trades. If your accuracy rate is far from 90% than sticking to reward-to-risk ratio of 2 would probably be a better decision.
• Don’t leave the positions open through the weekend. The weekly opening gap can be a killer. Don’t underestimate it. As a swing trader, I prefer to open my positions in the beginning of the week and I always close them before trading ends on Friday. The gap in the price rates that usually occurs after a weekend can make your stop-loss trigger far from the levels you planned it to.
• Wait before opening a new order after you’ve just traded. If you jump into another position right after you closed or opened a previous order is a straight road to overtrading and an empty balance. I always wait some time analyzing opportunities and resting from the Forex market before setting up my next order. Maybe, for the extreme scalpers this isn’t a best decision, but for the absolute majority of the medium-term Forex traders it is.

NOW I KNOW WHY PEOPLE USE APPLE MAC

I was doing some graphic editing these days. Just as a hobby. It seems that everytime I try to render in Photoshop, my pc will shutdown. It just switch off the power and everything is blank.

So I decided to investigate on the cause of the shutdown. After monitoring the temperature while doing some Photoshop rendering. My CPU temperature climbed up to 94C and my north bridge chipset is at 124C and the system will shutdown.

Imagine the component of your PC is reaching 124C. That is higher than point of boiling for water. It is scary sometimes thinking that the pc is under my table, just beside my leg and it is burning hot. Hopefully nothing will ever explode and take my leg with it. Im typing this with one leg on the chair just in case.

If you are using a pc, there is nothing to worry about. Under normal usage, the cpu is always below 40C. Mine is sleeping at 33C now. Its just that when you do some heavy calculation stuff that everything turns up red hot. So you can just surf the net, play some 3d games, watch dvd etc. Those normal usage do not require heavy calculation and your PC is half awake. Btw, 3d games is not a heavy usage. My pc can run Quake Wars with everything turned to max for hours. No problem there.

I will not use photoshop again on this pc. This is my power pc and it is running hot. I am using my 2nd pc to render all my photoshop graphic. Its been an hour and my 2nd pc still not finish rendering a 14Mega Pixel picture. This pc however can do it in 10 minutes. Talk about difference in power.

Next I am going to buy an Apple Mac for all my rendering needs. So my house will be full of computers. Btw I have 3 desktop and a laptop now working in the house. So if I add another Mac, I can turn my house into a cyber cafe.

As for Forex, its going up but at the moment the direction is down. So be on the look out for a sell but keep in mind, the long term trade is a buy. Forex is not a straight road and I feel like Yoda speaking right now. How can I say sell but at the time look for buy. You know it when its there. I assure you.

THESE ARE HARD TIMES.

The Market is now moving with unexpected turns. These are hard times. News traders have long gone. These kind of market isnt moving with the news. The only ones left are fundamental long term traders and technical traders. These are the traders who will survive in these kind of situation.

I have heard of quiet a numbers of blown accounts now. For these people dont feel bad. The world is not againts you. Just have to wait for a better time to enter the market.

I for myself have taken the long term trades only. Short term trades is out of the question now. Those sharp and sudden turns will kill any short term traders. It took me a while to realize, fortunately my loss is small and I manage to change tactics in a short period of time. At the moment I only take long position because that is what the daily chart is saying. All managed accounts is currently on hold. No more live trades for managed accounts. The risk is not very healthy right now.

These are hard times. The market is ever changing but at the moment the changes is greater than before. You need to be on your feet and react accordingly to changes of the market. Survive this and you will survive a long time in the market.

Catching A Bottom?

I don't know if it will really be the bottom, but I've managed to sink a decent amount of long AUDJPY around the 58.00 mark. There was a long term trend support line right around that point and I went with it.There are two separate positions at that point. Both of them have a protective stop loss slightly above their purchase price.Thought I've been having fun picking off a few pips here and

Ranging Market

In long term, this is a ranging market. You can see it from 4H. In medium term, this is a turning market. It is in a process of going for a long trade. That is the direction but I do not know if the trend will hold the direction.

Last week I manage to profit but only by a little. I lost a lot on Friday but manage to cover the losses and gain a little profit in the last minute. Have to stay up till 4am just to cover the losses.

Its a hard life becoming a trader. Is this the life you wanted? Sometimes I wonder that myself.

Trading Results: AUDJPY

For the week ending Fri 05-Dec-2008 I managed scrape out an 8% increase in net asset value.This week was more challenging, for me, than last week. I seem biased to seek opportunities with gains on the up side. So, on a week with sideways trading and periods of downward drift things slowed down.However, as always, watching my own trades brings insights that might be useful to other traders.For

RANGING PERIOD

Its ranging period again and its driving me nuts. My SL for EU got hit after 3 days. Got a few chance of closing it in profit but I refuse. Talk about being greedy now I am down by 50 pips.

This time around, big move belongs to GBP pairs. Steady move belongs to AUD pairs. Take your pick. You want big and risky, or small but safer. Safe here refer to your insurance in forex called Stop Loss.

At the moment GBP pairs has hit a brick wall on its way up. Most probably it wont break it or drop down again. Either way, a drop down again is unavoidable. That is where i plan to take my entry. Long position is looking good now but only after one more correction.

A UNIQUE CONDITION

At the time of writing EU is in a unique condition. 30M = 4H = D1. They are all pointing up but a bit heavy on the downside. This type of condition is very dangerous. It is all based on market sentiment.

At the moment the market is still trying to push EU down but EU has aligned itself for a shoot up. Just be carefull where you are standing when the big dogs enter the arena.

CRAPPY CONNECTION. RANGING PERIOD

Sorry for the long period of no update on this blog. It seems that internet connection is really bad. At the office I am using Streamyx. Connection is crappy as usual. At home I am using Celcom 3G. Its better but its slow. Maybe my home is not well covered by the 3G network.

As for forex, EurUsd, GbpUsd, AudUsd, EurJpy and GbpJpy is heading up now but not to worry, there is still time. On the long term only EurUsd looks good for a long trade. I am currently holding long EurUsd @ 1.2640 with a stop loss of 50 pip. This is a long term trade, hopefully the move upwards will take a long time and lots of pips on the way.

As for the other pairs, it is heading up but its not an uptrend yet. They will be entering the ranging period now. So there will be plenty of chances for entry. If all these pairs maintained their direction we will see a change in trend in the longer term trades.

I will list key levels for guidelines. These key levels are good for both sell and buy position. Treat them as guidelines for entry in either direction.

EurUsd : 1.2670
GbpUsd : 1.5050
AudUsd : 1.6450
EurJpy : 119.20
GbpJpy : 141.50

These key levels are always changing. Since most of these pairs are entering the ranging zone so you can use these key level for this whole week. As for me I will be looking for a long trade from these levels that is if the current direction stays.

Good things are simple things. If you have a system, make sure it is simple. With simple indication you can make clear decision.

Forex: Tools of Trade

Although, the success in the Forex trading is largely associated with the trading strategies and systems that can be usually bought for money, those are not the real tools of the Forex trader. They can only be considered as the «shortcuts to the riches». Every professional should employ his own tools of trade and the Forex traders should have them too. Independent on the professionalism level of the trader, these tools help to analyze the markets and to calculate all the necessary numbers for money management and position taking:

MetaTrader 4 platform — perhaps the most important of the tools, a successful Forex trader should have. Even if you don’t trade with MetaTrader broker you should still download this free platform and use it for charts and technical analysis. With MetaTrader you can browse charts and the past history of almost all currency pairs, you can apply dozens of standard indicators and use the custom user-tailored indicators, you can back-test strategies using their strategy tester and forward-test your systems and expert advisors on the free demo servers. MetaTrader is your number one tool if you want to go beyond the beginner’s level in Forex.

Risk and reward calculator — a helpful tool if you prefer to know your reward-to-risk ratio before opening a real money position and manage your risks correctly. This risk-to-reward calculator will only for the chart patterns with the distinctive local peak and bottom. It’s based on the Fibonacci retracements.

Pip value calculator — it’s not a trivial task to calculate the value of a pip if you trade exotic currency pairs and/or have your trading account in some exotic currency. Understanding the value of the pip is important to accurately calculate your profits and losses. The on-line pip value calculator tool will help you to determine the pip value with the minimum efforts from your side.

Pivot points calculator — this tool will be useful to you only if you prefer to trade using technical pivot levels. There are many types of pivot calculators available — floor pivots, Tom Demark’s pivots, Camarilla pivots, Woodie’s pivots, etc. I suggest you using the on-line pivot point calculator, which combines the calculation of all the possible pivot point types.

Fibonacci calculator — if you trade via the MetaTrader platform you don’t need a separate Fibonacci calculator because you can use the standard indicator to build Fibonacci retracement levels. But if you use some web-based or some other inferior platform, you’ll enjoy calculating the Fibo levels with the on-line Fibonacci calculator.