La psychologie du trader

Comme vous le savez, nous sommes tous très différent et nos émotions nous font réagir différemment face au marché. Chacune de nos émotions influence notre trading, de la prise de décision d'un achat jusqu'à la vente, qu'elle soit positive ou négative.

Une prise de décision est d'abord un stress car c'est une plongé dans l'inconnu même si l’on se sent rassurer par sa technique ou ses indicateurs. La décision est-elle bonne ? Le trade va-t-il partir dans le sens approprié ? L'a t’on pris au bon moment ? Tout une foule de question que l'on ne se pose pas avant une décision mais qui dans les secondes ou les minutes qui suivent arrivent à notre cerveau.

Dans le cas ou le trade suit notre réflexion, notre cerveau se détend mais la encore la question qui vient rapidement et de savoir quand couper la pose tout fier de nos gains. La plupart des gens ont l'habitude de couper rapidement leur pose de peur de voir le trade repartir dans l'autre sens ou alors d'assurer un minimum. Ils ont gagné, mais peu...Mais, ils sont contents.

D'autres au contraire laisse la pose vivre, dés fois trop vivre, trop confiant et coupe perdant sans avoir sécurisé leur pose.
Chacun vous dira que la décision de vendre et aussi difficile que la décision d'acheter.

Quand le trade ne suit pas la réflexion et qu'il va dans le sens contraire alors là, notre cerveau se met en ébullition et si tout d'un coup le cours s'accélère dans la perte, nos émotions risquent de nous jouer un sacré tour.

La première erreur et de ne pas avoir mis un stop loss ou alors de le déplacer à la baisse en se disant "ça va remonter" "ça va redescendre" et donc pourquoi perdre si je dois sortir gagnant ?

La deuxième erreur serait de dire, je vais moyenner ma pause. Bien souvent une première erreur entraîne une seconde et après une catastrophe.

Bien sûr, cela peut marcher mais si cela ne marche pas ?

Alors le trader reste seul en contemplant la perte qui s'aggrave et qui s'aggrave. Le trader est tétanisé. Il sait qu'il faut couper mais quand il voit le montant de la perte, il se dit "non", et toujours cet espoir d'un changement du sens du cour qui ne vient pas.

Dans ces moments là, on ne sait plus quoi faire et on guette ses indicateurs dans l'espoir d'une inversion de tendance. Mais rien ne se passe.
Alors par dépit, on coupe et généralement on coupe au plus bas et la première des choses que l'on ressent c'est un grand soulagement malgré la perte. On a arrêté de se torturer. Mais ensuite et comme par magie on constate que le cours revient dans le bon sens et là, on se sent vraiment mal. Certains iront même jusqu'à reprendre une pose se disant cette fois je suis dans le bon sens....Pas sur........

Généralement après une grosse perte le trader est défait et si le prochain trade se passe mal alors survient la peur allant jusqu'à engendrer l'impossibilité de prendre une décision de trade et dans les cas de grosse perte ou de perte total du capital, la dépression.

Un autre facteur de perte et la cupidité.

La cupidité est le fait de trader avec un fort levier. C'est encore pire que de ne pas mettre de stop loss car chaque trade devient un trade kamikaze ou le trader risque de perdre sa chemise. Il est vrais que trader pour gagner 10 euros, si on a un capital de 1000 euros c'est bien peu lorsqu'un broker vous offre la possibilité de multiplier avec un levier votre capital par 100 et donc normalement votre gain pas 100.
Malheureusement, là encore, une mauvaise décision et tout peut aller très vite et votre capital s'évanouir aussi vite.

De ce fait et si vous voulez survivre dans le monde du forex, prenez un levier qui vous corresponde. Mettez un stop loss vous permettant de perdre un minimum sans vous mettre en danger. Apprenez à dominer vos émotions, à respirer et à patienter. Évitez, l'intuition, l'impression, l'ennui, la cupidité, le manque de réalisme qui entraîne l'échec. Enfin, seul un bon indicateur pris au bon moment pourra vous permettre de gagner

A lire aussi, mes analyses techniques journalières sur l’euro/$

Si vous avez une question sur le forex, un broker, un indicateur, ou toute question sur le forex, n'hésitez pas à laissez un message.....

Apprendre le forex, débuter le forex, un conseil sur un broker du forex, un expert vous répond sur www.forex-formation.com

Tough Week All Around

With the recent downward move in the AUDJPY my robot has been sidelined. No big deal really but it does point to a possible correlation as I'd noted earlier. After a very good robot week, perhaps with behavior characteristic of a local top and massive robot profit, the market takes a downturn. There are only two data points so far but I'm definitely staying on the lookout for this. Above

Signals Blog Online

Just a short note to let you know that my new signals blog is online. Obviously this is a use at your own risk situation.Robot Price AlertsAnyway, when my robots notice various conditions they will post a message concerning the event in question.The only notice type currently active may identify a situation that will either have a short term AUDJPY price rise offering a scalping opportunity or a

Minor BREAD Adjustments

The BREAD trading robot has had a minor tweak during this last weekend.To make a long story short, another risk modification metric has been defined. If things work as planned this will give the robot the ability to trade over a wider currency pair price move. Obviously, the plan is to simultaneously maintain the same level of profitability.My initial readings on quantitative analysis, via

Le scalping

Le scalping est une technique que j'utilise souvent. Elle consiste à ne conserver les positions que quelques secondes, voire quelques minutes. Il n'y a pas d'analyse ou de réflexion derrière cela, juste un besoin d'adrénaline.

Grâce à mon broker Oanda, j'utilise le macd 30 sec ou le 1 mn qui me permettent de rentrer au plus bas et de sortir le mieux possible. Il m'arrive aussi de scalper sur du 10 sec, mais c'est très exceptionnel. De même, le faible spread sur euro/$ (0.9 pip), me permet de prendre un maximum de pip (entre 3 et 15), là ou un autre broker avec un spread plus important m'en donnerait moins et pourrait me mettre en danger sur un petit retour.

Le problème du scalping vient du fait que souvent on est tenté par la contre tendance. C'est un jeu très dangereux mais permettant un gain rapide car les retours sont rapides et brusques.

De ce fait, les petites ou très petites UT sont parfaites. Mais attention, vous n'aurez pas de droit à l'erreur et vos stop loss devront être proportionnels au gain que vous en attendez à savoir pour moi -10 pips.

Cette technique demande beaucoup de concentration et un marché de range sera parfait. A contrario, on évitera les tendances bien nettes qui pourraient impliquer de grosses pertes. On évitera aussi les statistiques.

A lire aussi, mes analyses techniques journalières sur l’euro/$

Si vous avez une question sur le forex, un broker, un indicateur, ou toute question sur le forex, n'hésitez pas à laissez un message.....

Quantitative Analysis?

It has been more than a few years since I've had to apply any serious math skills towards my work. However, I have noticed some discussion of quantitative analysis in a few forex forums as well as job listings posted for quants.For a very general introduction to this concept here are some links from Wikipedia:Stochastic calculusItō calculusMonte Carlo option modelStochastic

Robot Trading: Six Weeks In

Things are going well. As you can see BREAD (Basic Robot Earning All Day) is starting to look like a winner. Return Day 0.1900% Sun 13 September 3.2339% Mon 14 3.1616% Tue 15 3.2615% Wed 16 2.1510% Thu 17 0.4442% Fri 18 --------------- 13.05% 0.1850% Sun 20 2.0259% Mon 21 0.9016% Tue 22 1.1536% Wed 23 0.2460% Thu 24 0.1338% Fri 25 ----------

Forex Robot Wars: BREAD vs ARTFAB

Two titans of the forex robot trading industry are squaring off in the search for higher profits.In the green corner we have BREAD (Basic Robot Earning All Day) with consistent earnings of approximately 1.2% per day. In the other green corner we have the relatively new ARTFAB (A Rising Tide Floats All Boats) with very promising early results. Already today ARTFAB has locked in over 3.0%

AUDJPY: Market Call

The AUDJPY has done a whole lot of nothing for the last few days.Can you blame it? It must be tired after the recent climb.More seriously, with the RBA considering whether to raise rates another 25 or perhaps even 50 basis points, I don't expect any type of calamitous drop.I think we might see a drop down to 83.00 again but if it does stop in that region I'd consider the range between there and

Possible AUDJPY Reversal Point

I obviously have no guarantees but, according to my own proprietary reversal indicator, this is a potential reversal point.Again, do your own homework, but this is the "signal" I'll be posting to my alerts blog...UPDATE: It's about 9:49pm and the AUDJPY 1hr chart is showing a potential twin tail.UPDATE: It's 10:03pm and here's the 1hr chart right now...And here's the chart from my last post

AUDJPY: October Trend

The AUDJPY has been on an upward trajectory for a while now.There is no telling, at least not in advance, whether we'll see more massive upward movement due to hawkish statements from the RBA or not.However, here is a 3hr chart showing recent movements:Obviously, clear support and resistance helps identify some lower risk entry points.

New Robot Rules Fermenting

It's late Friday night, the markets are closed, and all through the house not a creature is stirring. Well, nobody but the scheming trader hatching up another robotic system.As someone who designs software systems for a living I can assure you that, in terms of making improvements, nothing is more helpful than watching a system in action. The key point here is the concept of "seeing" the results

Meteoric AUDJPY Rise

I'm starting to get more than a little cautious about the stellar increase in the AUDJPY over the last several days.While it's true that markets can continue to move higher or lower for long periods of time it's important not to get too caught up in recent events. In fact, though we all react to these things at different rates, you can consider it a warning whenever there is something to get

Recent Forex Results

I've had some success analyzing the AUDJPY over the last few days. In particular, whether by luck or otherwise I managed to spot some channels, one of them an apparent bull flag, a wedge leading to 82.00 and then predicting a breakthrough beyond that level.It's very rewarding to make an observation and then have results conform to your expectations.Anyway, I'm still letting my robot do my

AUDJPY: Possible Bull Flag

My last post focused on a short term channel.This time I'm looking at a longer term trend -- though still on the 1hr AUDJPY chart. This one looks like it might be a bull flag.It's always hard to tell. However, with future interest rate hikes expected, it's likely we'll continue our upward movement if signs of an Australian recovery remain strong.Here's the chart:Play safe.UPDATE: It's 7:00am

AUDJPY: Channel on the 1hr

There's a channel on the AUDJPY 1hr chart.For as long as the channel decides to last we have an opportunity at either the top or bottom levels.Notice it going back and forth?This is perfect for my custom trading robot...Unfortunately, predictability never lasts.Well, that was nice. It's about an hour and half later... see the bounce? Click the image to get a larger version...Are we going to

AUDJPY: 3hr A/D Trend

Here's a snip showing the accumulation distribution on the AUDJPY since the 2nd of October.The recent test of the support line happened today near 2:30pm. Obviously, the fact that the RBA appears to be ready to continue a series of interest rate hikes appears to be driving this.I'm looking for this line to break.UPDATE: It's just after 6:30pm and I figured it might be nice to get a larger look

Robot Upgrades: Preliminary Results

On weekends I like to either tweak existing robots or create new ones. While it's very early in the process I think the most recent tweaks are going to have a noticeable positive effect.I woke up around 4:00am this morning and thought I'd check on the computer. What did I see? A nice AUDJPY move from 81.10 to 81.50 for now. Anyhow, this weekend's tweaks were operating on the dip and return.

BREAD's Trading Results

Yes, for lack of a better name I am calling my robot BREAD. This is short for Basic Robot Earning All Day. It has been given minor tweaks from time to time but it still continues to follow the same system and strategy... taking advantage of constant price oscillations in the AUDJPY. While the results don't look all that spectacular I invite you to investigate how this ends up in a compound

Skeptical About The AUDJPY?

I'm sorry you feel that way. Perhaps after looking at the following chart snip you'll think that you may have missed the boat.See how the daily chart shows solid support since March? March! Hello, it's a little too late to be skeptical. The question you have to ask yourself is why has the AUDJPY been performing so well and how long will it continue to do so.On another note, I'm going to start

Beating The AUD Drum

Did anyone notice this AUD tidbit?Unemployment fell to 5.7% from 6.0% against expectations of no change. The extremely strong job number will cement expectations that the RBA will continue to hike rates and perhaps be more aggressive in doing so.If you been following my blog this isn't going to be a surprise.As my last post said... buy on dips.

Buy AUDJPY On Dips?

It's very plausible that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) has started the slow process of moving interest rates from emergency levels to normal.RBA Starts Rate RisesWe'll want to see what happens over the next couple of months in order to confirm this analysis. However, from now on whenever the markets are panicked about the latest downward surprise, it might be time to dip your toes in.We're

US Economy Heads Up

If you are wondering what is going on with the US economy, this puzzle piece from CNBC will fit in very nicely.Dunkelberg: You Can't See Main Street From Wall StreetWhat this is saying is that there probably is not a small business collapse in the works due to credit issues. Smaller businesses will simply wait until they see consumer spending before they bother to access credit.Personally, I am

Robot Strategy / Development

Without getting into detailed specifics I thought I'd try to answer a recent question about the strategies I'm trying with my various robots.First, a bit of background in case this is the first post you see on this blog:I design software and systems for a livingI've been trading for years -- learning through the heart of the downturn.With that out of the way I'd suggest looking at one of my posts

AUDJPY Roller Coaster

Generally, I follow and prefer to trade the AUDJPY. It goes through unwinds from time to time as the bigger players suffer fits of risk aversion.For the last few weeks we've been bouncing back and forth between 77 and 80. On the way down, with all the gloom and doom blaring in the media, it feels like we must be about to fall off a cliff.It's difficult not to be scared. After all, anyone who