AUDJPY: Poised?

I don't have time to snip a chart or anything, however I'd suggest taking a few moments to analyze the AUDJPY.What I see is the potential for a so-called "big W" on the 3 hour chart. You'll notice the right side of the W has a double bottom. If we do get the full "big W" we should see some dramatic upward movement over the week.Fundamentally, inflation, employment and other indicators in

Beating The AUD Drum

Did anyone notice this AUD tidbit?Unemployment fell to 5.7% from 6.0% against expectations of no change. The extremely strong job number will cement expectations that the RBA will continue to hike rates and perhaps be more aggressive in doing so.If you been following my blog this isn't going to be a surprise.As my last post said... buy on dips.

Buy AUDJPY On Dips?

It's very plausible that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) has started the slow process of moving interest rates from emergency levels to normal.RBA Starts Rate RisesWe'll want to see what happens over the next couple of months in order to confirm this analysis. However, from now on whenever the markets are panicked about the latest downward surprise, it might be time to dip your toes in.We're

US Economy Heads Up

If you are wondering what is going on with the US economy, this puzzle piece from CNBC will fit in very nicely.Dunkelberg: You Can't See Main Street From Wall StreetWhat this is saying is that there probably is not a small business collapse in the works due to credit issues. Smaller businesses will simply wait until they see consumer spending before they bother to access credit.Personally, I am

Robot Strategy / Development

Without getting into detailed specifics I thought I'd try to answer a recent question about the strategies I'm trying with my various robots.First, a bit of background in case this is the first post you see on this blog:I design software and systems for a livingI've been trading for years -- learning through the heart of the downturn.With that out of the way I'd suggest looking at one of my posts

AUDJPY Roller Coaster

Generally, I follow and prefer to trade the AUDJPY. It goes through unwinds from time to time as the bigger players suffer fits of risk aversion.For the last few weeks we've been bouncing back and forth between 77 and 80. On the way down, with all the gloom and doom blaring in the media, it feels like we must be about to fall off a cliff.It's difficult not to be scared. After all, anyone who

Long Term Carry Trade Fundamentals

While reading a recent CNBC article about current events something clicked for me.Here is the passage:The dollar rose broadly on Thursday as yields on 10-year U.S. government bonds jumped more than 50 basis points in the last two weeks, drawing Japanese investors into overseas assets like global semi-conductor stocks, banks and U.S. junk bonds, according to Reuters.Do you remember the massive

FX Trading And Analysis

I've become a little frustrated with most of news sources out there. If you've been an active forex trader for any length of time you'll notice that talking heads are always trying to tell you why something happened.That's really nice, and might possibly help you learn about various financial interactions, but it's absolutely useless from a trading point of view. If you are trading you need to

Fundamental Conjecture

Something to keep in mind when you consider where the currency markets will be heading in 2009.It appears that the Obama stimulus package will contain a $250,000 write off for business expenses. This is huge. Smaller businesses, when generating expenses, are not generally spending their money outside of the US. Vehicles, machinery, tools, raw goods or whatever else is eligible for this tax

Fundamental Market Conjecture

Be warned that for some reason I remain a perennial optimist.It strikes me that a lot of the current analysis is based on credit spreads and other esoteric measurements with an eye towards what current values would have implied during past periods.I'm not saying that this analysis of fundamentals is wrong, but consider this for a moment. Every time something surprising happens we end up looking

Seeing Beyond The Bailout

Now that the US bailout package has been passed the question on everyone's mind is what happens next?Nobody knows. Conversely, everyone knows!Once the question of government action has been answered we know that the currency markets will move either up or down. Basically, the only time they are in near stasis is when speculators and investors need the next piece of information in order to

Long Term Carry Trade Prognosis

With the temporary loan facility made available to AIG by the Fed it seems that the currency markets are getting back a bit more appetite for risk.The Yen has been dropping and carry trade pairs have floated erratically to more respectable levels. The real question is how the US markets will react tomorrow. I'm expecting the equity markets, the DOW, to do well but I don't know if the carry

Forex Turmoil: Still On The Sidelines

During the last few weeks of topsy-turvy price movements I've been playing it safe. I like to buy carry trade pairs, but they've been heading down a lot.Now, the big question, when will things start to turn around? A few of the pairs are getting into historically low valuations. For example, take a look at the GBPJPY pair on google finance -- click the 5yr option when it loads.Sure, we could

Fundamental Forex Guesswork

Okay, so during the NY trading session today I did manage to get some AUDJPY positions protected under a stop loss.What I'm hoping, and I'll try to convince myself via fundamental issues, is that the foreign markets will rise based on US news. You see, the US economy came out luke warm today. Inflation didn't seem to be a big issue and various sectors were weak, but nothing was

US Durable Goods / Jobless Claims

The numbers came out weak this morning.While it appears to have caused some initial softness, I think we should keep in mind that a weak US economy gives the Fed additional room to lower interest rates without fears of inflation.So, personally, I might consider buying into weakness...